They're still effective against severe illness and mortality for BA.4 and BA.5. Also, the vaccines are less effective in terms of preventing infection. We know right now from several studies that previous infections from other variants do not provide as much immunity against Omicron and BA.4 and BA.5. That's a big concern for us because what has happened before in Europe has happened here in the United States, and we could see here in the United States a third wave, especially from BA.4 and BA.5, which are increasing as a percentage of the variants that are circulating. We see the third wave with an increasing number of reported cases, and we see it in France, in Germany, beginning of it in the UK, in Greece, in Israel. We see a third wave, driven mainly by BA.4 and BA.5, and the relaxation of mandates, increased mobility, and low mask wearing. On the global level, what we are seeing right now is a rise in some European countries. Our recommendation would be to take another COVID-19 vaccine before winter and a flu vaccine.Īlso, our recommendation is for every state to secure enough antivirals in order to make sure they are provided to infected people, especially those who are at high risk, elderly, and people with immunocompromise or with risk factors, chronic conditions, to make sure that we reduce the burden on our hospitals and we save lives.Īnd, of course, continue screening and making sure that we don't lose track of what's circulating in our country, and if there is an increase in cases due to another variant or pre-existing variant, we take the measures that are necessary to stop the spread of this virus. We expect that flu season could be bad because we haven't seen flu in the past three years. We're expecting a surge in winter, and the focus right now in the United States should be on vaccinating people and getting the booster, and then getting another vaccination before the winter, especially also with flu. In general, we're heading in the right direction in the United States. We will then predict if we see a third wave or not, and how big it will be and how long it will last.
#US LOCKDOWN 2021 UPDATE#
We will update our models the second week of July, and we will include all this new information in our models. They are still very effective in preventing severe illness and mortality, but we are concerned that with BA.4 and BA.5 spreading fast with the relaxation of mandates and with the patterns we are seeing in some European countries where there is a third wave, we are concerned that there is potential here for another bump or increase in cases in the coming months. We are concerned in the United States because of the fast spread of BA.4 and BA.5 – they are escape variants in that it seems from the new studies we are looking at, that the vaccines are less effective in preventing infection of BA.4 and BA.5. It is spreading across the United States, and we project that this will continue all the way until the end of September, when we are expecting another wave.
This is the pattern we have seen in the northeastern states.
In the United States, reported cases, infections, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to decline. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity BA.4 and BA.5 in the United States The future is still unclear in China, but much of the population remains susceptible to severe infection.
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